Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 96902.151622 102140.183638 107373.174923 112989.914176 118844.313075 124762.971433 131195.275022
2025-08-17 87749.844967 95729.446697 103920.701159 112947.070722 122603.709505 132614.054342 143764.612781
2025-08-24 82115.238775 92047.194422 102462.048762 114175.643341 126960.541350 140468.729704 155797.540855
2025-08-31 76871.473503 88181.393691 100256.946161 114073.269228 129406.574445 145864.267310 164826.427362
2025-09-07 73632.566306 86165.796474 99756.465042 115535.619130 133296.302812 152613.542249 175155.484545
2025-09-14 70603.836242 84129.271768 99002.856999 116500.190378 136444.785939 158393.963981 184296.735479
2025-09-21 67462.886012 81757.070879 97682.621421 116647.191165 138516.839588 162845.313599 191851.743346
2025-09-28 64690.400387 79646.767982 96514.217368 116828.761127 140507.674813 167110.797379 199127.884375
2025-10-05 63172.042563 78899.102831 96831.793588 118649.737163 144326.010089 173428.433269 208745.714262
2025-10-12 61618.673284 78018.306726 96914.663041 120127.434790 147693.470149 179197.630936 217728.231067
2025-10-19 59822.497435 76758.646494 96472.512904 120915.913865 150197.262417 183928.580468 225491.003041
2025-10-26 57789.110860 75125.585000 95507.458294 121009.705174 151819.231169 187585.015166 231971.764350
2025-11-02 56001.143983 73748.086801 94818.410192 121418.164896 153820.749538 191718.805950 239080.867067
2025-11-09 54165.973534 72247.675937 93924.154605 121529.612078 155430.552650 195371.595207 245625.935153
2025-11-16 53064.438381 71618.151889 94059.733566 122870.101362 158513.677653 200788.313386 254307.255825
2025-11-23 51328.831557 70124.895182 93069.535253 122769.708677 159793.547969 204004.347328 260325.925453
2025-11-30 50485.361231 69734.643774 93427.690973 124324.291220 163101.188699 209686.230706 269363.433145
2025-12-07 49446.283818 69052.660493 93384.870201 125348.770328 165734.799299 214543.367831 277412.189603
2025-12-14 48068.336042 67884.188648 92683.598418 125504.927487 167256.334158 218019.742761 283767.754068
2025-12-21 46777.136705 66788.091127 92037.596388 125697.702008 168798.385745 221508.213908 290140.857277
2025-12-28 46309.883240 66762.874120 92756.886223 127630.641796 172542.891241 227747.917207 299962.858579
2026-01-04 45712.400000 66540.571746 93202.377003 129198.956480 175822.260204 233419.115659 309107.646333
2026-01-11 44837.586216 65916.578642 93098.803282 130035.701514 178155.394338 237904.947161 316786.528965